Following his tumble in the latest Newspoll survey, it's time to compare the Liberal leadership aspirants behind Malcolm Turnbull.
Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott, the two Jesuit-educated Sydneysiders, are the frontrunners should the embattled Turnbull fall before the next federal election. They and retirement-bound Peter Costello are featuring in surveys by NewsPoll to find the best Liberal leader. In the most recent poll the rank order was Costello 36 per cent, Hockey 20 per cent, Turnbull 16 per cent and Abbott 10 per cent.
MPs take a range of factors into consideration when choosing a leader. The most important, given the relatively equivalent capacity and experience of Abbott and Hockey, are potential to win the next election, policy positions and factional alliances.
The stage of the electoral cycle makes a difference too. After the November 2007 election Brendan Nelson prevailed because Turnbull's electoral appeal was discounted by enough right-wingers who were willing to back Nelson on policy grounds. By the second contest last year, with Nelson struggling in the polls, Turnbull triumphed because the next election was getting closer and success now seemed more important.
There are some similarities between Abbott and Hockey, including parliamentary and ministerial experience. Abbott entered parliament in 1994 and Hockey is part of the much trumpeted Class of '96. They both became ministers in the Howard government after the 1998 elections.
Abbott moved upwards more quickly than Hockey for a while, and served as Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations and then Minister for Health. But Hockey eventually ended up being chosen to sell WorkChoices as Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. He has done better in Opposition, while Abbott's star has waned. Hockey, the Shadow Treasurer, is now Abbott's political senior.
There are two important areas of difference. One is electoral appeal. Hockey is more popular in the electorate. Hockey, co-star with Kevin Rudd on the Channel 7 Sunrise Program until it was cancelled because his party colleagues thought the friendship was unbecoming, has an outgoing manner that appeals to the public. The big friendly bear of a man is attractive to both sides of politics.
The gaunt-looking Abbott, on the other hand, suffers from his aggressive, adversarial stance and his image as an ideologically conservative Catholic unwilling to compromise. He is a divisive rather than inclusive figure.
The second difference is that Hockey is a member of the Liberal Left and Abbott is part of the Liberal Right.