This evening's Budget is a major political event, perhaps the biggest one of the year. But, like all budgets, the whole package (the Treasurer's speech plus the accompanying papers) is so big that it is difficult for anyone to get their head around it. As a consequence, many of us latch on to relatively trivial details. Here are some points to aid your thinking as you are watching tonight.
The Budget normally condenses a whole year's politics into a single document. In the case of the Rudd Government it is less than six months. It is the culmination of months of hard work and argument by ministers, public servants, pressure groups and lobbyists. The final decisions are taken by Cabinet.
It is one of the most important markers of the year because it is a major parliamentary set piece between the Government and the Opposition. In a non-election year like 2008 it is probably the most important marker of all.
Any budget is about trade-offs and choices between available spending and taxing options. There are inevitably winners and losers; those who will be pleasantly surprised by the outcome and those who will be bitterly disappointed.
A first-year budget in a three-year electoral cycle is the best opportunity that any government has to produce a mean, tough budget full of cuts to spending and rebuffs to sectional interests. A government can give out goodies and election bribes in years two and three.
A budget is a particular challenge for a Labor government seeking respectability, given popular skepticism about the party's economic credentials. It must meet the expectations of the business community and the financial press while not disappointing its traditional supporters too much.
The Budget is a technical document, hard for any amateur to decipher. Even the professionals need time to digest its details; hence the media lock-up where journalists and pressure groups are given a head start over the rest of us to give them more time before they are asked to comment. Be aware of the distinction between new money being made available and old money previously announced, spending allocated in small chunks only over the longer term, and spending only kicking in at various times in the future.
The best short cut to understanding the Budget is to see how the assorted pressure groups, like business, farmers, the welfare lobby and the ACTU, respond on the night and