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Whatever happens now there will be no election until March 2013 at the earliest. This means the Gillard Labor Government will go almost full term despite relentless pressure from the Opposition, a hung parliament and a raft of controversies. But survival is not the same as victory. It has come at a cost.
The passage of time has shown that it has not made a great deal of difference whether the ALP leader was Gillard or Rudd. In all likelihood, it doesn't really matter who leads Labor to the 2013 election. What is more important is that they are able to demonstrate good policy achievement.
Labor speechwriter Graham Freudenberg observed that ‘the oldest, deepest, most poisonous debate in Australia has been about government aid to church schools’. The most dramatic episode in the history of church state relations in Australia was the Goulburn schools strike, which took place 50 years ago this month.
The Nationals have made their first big play for the next federal election. The recruitment of NSW state independent Richard Torbay to challenge New England incumbent Tony Windsor is either a masterstroke or a revealing insight into their problems and weaknesses as a regional and rural political party.
This rough, tough former workplace lawyer came, as we knew she does, into her own when she was on her feet, fighting for her political life. Now for the first time since she put on the prime ministerial stilettos in 2010 we can sense the steel core within those blue suede size 36 heels.
Catholics in Australia have tended to be more tolerant of alcohol and gambling than 'wowser' Protestants. But too many Catholics turn a blind eye to how today's poker machine technology and operating environment is designed to nurture dangerous (but profitable) addiction.
Abbott will face a worsening dilemma. If he continues to rage about revoking the carbon tax, he will alienate industry groups that want stability above all. If he goes quiet, he will validate Labor's portrayal of him as a cynical opportunist who stands for nothing but gaining power.
If Rudd was re-installed as leader, Howard's Lazarus impersonation and Menzies' return to office in 1949 would have been outdone by the most remarkable twist ever in Australian politics. Only insiders know whether it might happen. Only voters know whether it might work.
I'm not worried about Gillard's abysmal rating in polls. I'm not convinced anyone but journalists and backbiters have any real desire to roll her. There is no obvious alternative to Gillard as Labor leader, but there is an obvious need for a party which stands for something.
Though Gillard's leadership has started to come under pressure, no one in Labor will want to overthrow her until the carbon pricing laws package is securely in place. This means no challenge before the first half of 2012. Only then, if opinion polls keep trending down, may Gillard be vulnerable.
The Census will play a central role in the planning of the next Federal election. Past results show that while much of Labor's working class base has abandoned it, a solid base of Catholics remains. But many of these supporters are now standing near the door bemused or angry. These figures show that while low income earners have abandoned Labor, a solid base of Catholics have stuck with it.
Some regional Australians may be enjoying the political day in the sun of rural independents Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. But despite the prominence of the NBN and the Murray Darling Basin, flippancy and apathy dominate metropolitan Australia's attitude to regional and rural issues.