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From Moscow to Beijing, a change in global finance looms, set to challenge the long-standing economic hegemony. This imminent shift could redefine global power structures, disrupt currency markets and international trade. Amidst this uncertainty, one thing is clear: the game of geopolitical chess is no longer played on a Western-centric board.
As the world thawed post-Cold War, a debate raged over global supremacy, with Western powers predicting a unipolar world dominated by liberal democracy. Contrarily, others envisioned a future shaped by cultural and religious divides. In a shifting geopolitical landscape, the echoes of this debate continue to challenge long-held assumptions on global power dynamics.
Was Russia's removal from the SWIFT system the moment when the global financial system detached itself from reality? The financial system is at risk from unpayable debt and the delusion that money can be created out of money itself, and wider trust underpinning finance is steadily evaporating.
As the AI revolution begins, the question publishers must consider is how to integrate AI as a tool that enhances human skills and wisdom without replacing them. Ultimately, the goal should be to make our contribution to society more human, not less.
Financial markets are made up of human beings and human beings have always been storytellers — long before science, or modern finance, or accounting even existed. Accordingly, the main skill of successful analysts, advisers, financial gurus and commentators is the construction of compelling narratives. They are, if not exactly creators of fairy stories, not too far removed from it.
The world is facing cross-currents: a collapsing financial system that is balanced by the benefits of massive, long term improvements in production efficiencies, mainly because of technological advances. It is a bad news/good news story that can only be seen accurately if the intractable errors of contemporary economics are jettisoned. We are in a battle between finance fictions and reality.
Now that it is becoming hard to avoid just how much trouble the global financial system is in, it is interesting to speculate about what should be done about it. The first thing to understand about the global financial system is that the assumptions that were used to shape it are demonstrably false.
Monetary authorities are caught in an impossible situation. Inflation is rising: it is over 5 per cent in Australia and over 9 per cent in the United States. Inflation is often seen as a way out of excessive debt because it erodes the real value of money and therefore the real value of the debt. But what is increasingly being discussed are ways to cancel the debt.
The question that should be posed is how effective has the Reserve Bank been at ‘managing’ the economy and financial system? ‘Not very’, has to be the answer. Not that the RBA is alone. The same pattern has been seen across the developed world. Central banks have one weapon at their disposal, the cost of money (the interest rate), and there is not much evidence they have used this tool to make their systems sustainable. Mostly, they have made matters worse.
As commodity prices and inflation soar in the ‘real’ world we may be witnessing a prelude to another 2008-style crisis triggered by the foreign exchange markets. The risks certainly look similar and can be described with a simple question. Can the fictions produced by out-of-control financial actors survive reality?
An often overlooked fact about the financial system is that it entirely depends on trust. When trust starts to evaporate, especially between the big players such as banks and insurance companies, the whole artifice is put into peril. Trust in the system is now at an extreme low and that points to extreme danger.