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Years ago, a trout fisherman with 'irresistible' bait was outsmarted by a flock of pelicans. Like a punter with unshakeable conviction, Malcolm Turnbull also learned the hard way that there's no such thing as a dead certainty.
The great wave of Utegate has passed over us, leaving Malcolm Turnbull on the sands, chastened but apparently unrepentant, and far from exhausted. Reports of his political death are manifestly exaggerated.
The biggest casualty in the Ozcar affair appears to be Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval rating has plummeted. Turnbull is learning that a politician's job security isn't just tied to their ability to play politics. It's also linked to their character.
The Utegate affair has revealed once again that Australian politics at the federal level is not squeaky clean. Some interests and individuals do better out of the system than others. But neither is it deeply flawed and corrupt.