The last five years have witnessed significant challenges to the Catholic theological education sector as it has had to adjust to an increasingly regulated higher education environment. However, the next five years will place increasing strain on the sector as it struggles to find properly trained personnel to fill the depleted ranks of theologians and biblical scholars.
Some 20 years ago the major suppliers of a Catholic theological education were theological colleges which functioned as seminaries (or at least provided theological education for seminarians) with lay people a happy addition to the student body. Many of these colleges were part of ecumenical theological consortia which provided structures for the accreditation of awards. In this way students would receive state-recognised degrees, initially at bachelors level but eventually leading to research masters and doctorates. These theological consortia have been a major ecumenical achievement, bringing together diverse ecclesial traditions into a common theological venture.
In those days the forms of state accreditation focused on the maintenance of proper academic standards. The regular rounds of accreditation and reaccreditation of awards would consider academic standards and the qualifications of teaching staff. These were rigorous but non-intrusive processes which attended to the basics but left the colleges to work out much of the details for themselves.
This is no longer the case. Federal government moves over the past five years in higher education have led to the development of national protocols which have placed increasing administrative burdens on all theological colleges.
State accreditation processes mirror federal requirements and now focus not just on the qualification of staff and the standards of courses but on governance structures and policies in relation to overseas students, study leave policies for academic staff and so on. Meeting these requirements is an increasing financial burden on a sector which generally runs on the smell of an oily rag. Further, to give students access to Fee-Help, the federal government student loan scheme for higher education, these colleges must also face the cost of an audit by the federal government Australian University's Quality Agency (AUQA).
To face these challenges consortia have had to re-structure their governance, develop multiple policies on every issue the national protocols require and in many cases raise their fees to meet the cost on the added administrative load. Government demands have put enormous strains on the resources of theological education.
While these past five years have provided many challenges to theological colleges in general, the next five years are going to provide an extra challenge to Catholic theological colleges in particular. Last year a taskforce comprising members from the Forum of Australian Catholic Institutes of Theology (FACIT) and Australian Catholic University (ACU) undertook a survey of all Catholic theological college staff. While the taskforce had a long history of collecting and analysing data on student numbers, this was the first time it had surveyed staff. The aim was to obtain a snapshot of the current situation, considering issues of age distribution, qualifications and areas of expertise.
Some of the results of the FACIT-ACU survey came as no surprise. Theologians are in general extremely well-qualified, for example. Most of those employed outside the university sector (ACU and Notre Dame) are priests and religious. Two questions however produced answers which while not surprising should be raising red flags for all those with a concern for theological education.

In terms of the age profile of the sector over 12 per cent are over seventy, and 42.5 per cent are over 60 years old. Less than 20 per cent are under fifty and 2 per cent under forty. Close to 37 per cent indicated their intention to retire in the next five years or less. Out of the 122 who responded to the survey, this means we will be losing at least 45 in the next five years. And this is an intention to retire. It does not take into account other ways in which we will lose theologians from the pool of teachers. Just after the results of the survey were tabled we heard news of the elevation of Tim Costelloe to the episcopacy. While it is pleasing to have a theologian made a bishop, it is likely to mean the end of his teaching career at the Catholic Theological College in Melbourne.
It would not be difficult to predict then that in the next five years we will lose some 50 of those who are currently teaching theology in our Catholic theological colleges. It is near impossible to see how this shortfall can be made up, particularly from the pool of Australia theologians. Younger theologians are not available to fill the gaps. Already some colleges have appointed people from overseas. There is a good numbers of people undertaking theological research degrees in Australia, but sampling two major institutions revealed an average age of over 50 for the research students. Even here there is only a short-term solution.
In the past Australia has produced a number of theologians and biblical scholars of international standing, including John Thornhill, Bill Dalton, David Coffey, Tony Campbell, Brendan Byrne, Frank Moloney and Tony Kelly. Most of these have come from religious orders with the resources and determination to maintain a pool of well-trained and qualified theologians and scholars in their colleges. Many of these religious orders are in decline and the demands of providing theologians and scholars are not the top priority when parishes need priests. The solution will not come from here.
On the face of it Catholic theological education is facing a major crisis. It cannot go on 'business as usual'. We cannot produce anywhere near the 50 replacement theologians and scholars we will need over the next five years to keep our current operations going. Major structural rationalisations need to occur and they need to start now. At present where this will take us is not clear, but the next five years will lead to the rise and fall of many as we struggle to adjust to the realities we face.