Quick reader poll. When I say 'Tony Abbott', what words spring to mind? Future-focused? Tech-savvy? Visionary?
I'm guessing the answer is nope, nope and nope. After all, Abbott is a social conservative whose signature achievement as Prime Minister was repealing legislation from the previous government. He was ridiculed for his outdated views on women and his attempts to reinstate a system of Knights and Dames. Part of Turnbull's pitch to replace him was a shift towards 'innovation'.
The other justification, as the media reminded us ad nauseam this week, was Abbott's 30 consecutive losing Newspolls. When Turnbull passed that same milestone on Monday, Abbott was cycling through Victoria's Latrobe Valley to draw attention to his latest crusade — a government-funded coal-fired power station.
A lot of people got annoyed with ol' Tony, saying he was undermining Turnbull's leadership or distracting from real solutions to fix out national electricity market and curb greenhouse gas pollution. Not me. I'm concerned about climate change and want to see Australia transition to more renewable energy, so I was cheering him on. Go Tony!
Why? Because every time he fronts up to the cameras as self-appointed Ambassador for the Little Black Rock, Tony Abbott reinforces the message that coal power is the technology of a bygone era.
The Coalition's political old guard don't get this because their thinking hasn't changed since Abbott's 'carbon tax' sloganeering of 2012 and 2013. His chief of staff, Peta Credlin, later explained the strategy on Sky News: 'We made it a fight about the hip pocket and not about the environment.'
Indeed, that's how the issue was framed for decades: reducing prices vs cutting pollution. The trouble is it's no longer true, and the energy industry doesn't support it. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the coverage of the Australian Financial Review, which once ridiculed renewables but now runs articles about how they're the cheapest investment for new electricity supply.
"The lobby group representing coal power stations is now saying that renewables are the cheapest form of new power supply. And the country's biggest financial newspaper is publishing it. Can you imagine that happening five years ago?"
On Wednesday the AFR published an opinion piece by Matthew Warren, CEO of the Australian Energy Council, which represents big coal and gas generators. Warren argued that 'new coal is now more expensive per megawatt hour than new wind and new solar', flatly contradicting Abbott's claims. Banks won't finance high emissions coal power, he wrote, and wholesale prices will soon come down due to 'a wave of more than 4000MW of new renewable generation entering the market over the next two years'.
Let me reiterate: the lobby group representing coal power stations is now saying that renewables are the cheapest form of new power supply. And the country's biggest financial newspaper is publishing it. Can you imagine that happening five years ago?
The public doesn't believe coal equals cheaper prices either. In a 2015 Essential Media poll, more people thought renewables would be better for electricity costs, jobs and the economy. Essential did the same poll in September 2017, with similar results (although there was a slight decline for renewables being better for electricity costs).
Whenever you pit the two against each other, renewables come out on top. A July 2017 Essential poll found 64 per cent of respondents would prefer investment in renewable energy sources to meet future energy supply needs, and only 18 per cent would prefer new coal-fired power plants. A September 2017 ReachTEL poll found even people in coal industry electorates like Hunter, where Liddell power station is located, overwhelmingly prefer government investment in renewable energy than coal.
Such findings are remarkably consistent over time, across electorates and between different polling companies. They're also backed by independent polls — the Lowy Institute found an overwhelming majority of Australian adults (81 per cent) want the government to 'focus on renewables, even if this means we may need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable'.
Why are renewables so popular? I'd like to say greater support for action on climate change, but I suspect that's not it. As mentioned before, I think it's because wind and solar represent technological progress, and people in rich, industralised countries like ours believe new technology will lead to ever-higher material standards of living.
From copper landlines to smartphones, horse-drawn carriages to motorcars, and typewriters to laptops, we've all seen how last century's technology has given way to the next big invention. Renewable energy is simply the electricity sector's turn for disruption. Most people think this is inevitable and, like previous innovations, will ultimately increase prosperity.
This is the new frame for the debate — not prices vs pollution, but past vs future. We saw it rise to prominence last week. After Abbott and a few other Coalition backbenchers announced a 'Monash Forum' to lobby the government for coal power, descendents of Sir John Monash rebuked them for misappropriating the family name.
Sir Monash was 'intellectual and scientific', they wrote. 'We are sure that, today, he would be a proponent of the new technologies e.g. wind and solar generation, rather than revert to the horse-and-buggy era.'
See the analogy? Old vs new. This is the looming PR battle for coal, and it's the reason the Minerals Council's recent ad campaign has the tagline 'making the future possible'.
But if the pitch is future relevance, Abbott is the worst spokesperson possible, especially when he's flanked by other political dinosaurs like Howard-era ministers Kevin Andrews and Eric Abetz. You can't look at these blokes and think 'modern' or 'innovative'. On top of that, the media interprets all of Abbott's interventions as a personal vendetta against Turnbull, distracting from his message.
Polling released this week suggests the Coalition campaign of 'fear, uncertainty and doubt' about renewable energy is finally cutting through. Most people still support government prioritising renewables over coal, but coal has crept up over the last three years. This coincides with Turnbull's 'technology neutral' pitch, which sounds more reasonable and pragmatic than Abbott's past belligerence.
All of this is why every time Abbott stands outside a coal power station and smiles his goofy grin, I just laugh and shake my head. Silly bugger. He can't resist throwing punches, but doesn't realise he's knocking the wind out of his own cause.
Greg Foyster is a Melbourne writer and the author of the book Changing Gears.
Main image: Tony Abbott (with Kevin Andrews) speaks about coal power at Hazelwood.