Entering an election year is like coming home for the holiday season. It's full of hope and hijinks but also promises and pain. And like every family, each party has its quirks.
The Coalition is like a couple who have broken up but still live together because nobody wants to move out. The Liberal Party has a lot of soul searching to do, especially about its women problem, but is unlikely to do so any time soon. Meanwhile the Nationals will try to find common ground with their constituents amid concerns about inaction on climate change, water management and changing social values.
In 2019 voters face a frenetic campaign from Scott Morrison. The former marketing man, seen by many as less a leader and more a relief teacher, has already shown he plays politics fast and hard. Morrison will focus his message on the 'quiet Australians' who seem to be the silent majority 2.0.
Expect journalists and the Australian public to be exhausted by his announcements — notably an anticipated suite of tax cuts in the mini budget in April — and confused by his flip flopping on policy positions. After all, he is probably here for a good time, not a long time.
Malcolm Turnbull will remain an albatross for the government — his poorly explained demise a curse on their final (and very few) sitting weeks. Morrison has ruled out an early election in March but considering the difficult Parliament — without a majority in the Lower House — that they're due to return to in February, it will be interesting to see if he decides to resume it at all.
Labor is like a blended family — they have learnt from their past relationships and are now somewhat functional. In readying themselves to win government they have kept most disagreements behind closed caucus doors — aside from the occasional outburst of aspiration from Anthony Albanese.
Having retained the same leadership team for its five years in the wilderness, Labor must be proud of the disciplined front it has put up publicly. In light of Bill Shorten's relative unpopularity the party is likely to emphasise this team as part of its campaign strategy. In the lead up to the election the ALP will continue to release progressive policies, but nothing that will rock the boat, lest they leave themselves open to easy attacks from the Coalition.
"2019 will be the year of having a go to get a go but it will also be slow going in terms of real reform."
The Greens are like that cousin that each time you get together you hope they are doing better than last year. Unfortunately it seems the party may have peaked — a lacklustre leadership post Bob Brown — and it's all downhill from here. Some even say that at the New South Wales level the tensions may lead to a Greens split, which would make things interesting with the late March state election.
Just like that racist aunty at Christmas, One Nation — and spin-off extremist Fraser Anning — will endure as a frustrating presence in politics. Despite their half baked policies and hair brained attempts at getting attention, Pauline Hanson and her motley crew have a hold on the Coalition — who will persist in using them as a yardstick on which to measure how loud its own dog whistling can be.
Then there's Centre Alliance, formerly the Nick Xenophon Party, whose members are now like an uncle's ex-wives — they have common ground but differ in their concerns somewhat. The Senate, in which the party currently holds two seats, is staring down a shake-up with half the spots in contest. If Parliament does resume we will likely see a careful crossbench trying to stymie any last ditch attempts by the government at passing controversial policy.
The holiday season isn't complete without surprise guests and estranged family members. Reactions to Rob Oakeshott's decision to contest the safe Nationals held seat of Cowper have been mixed so far — the Murdoch press focusing on his backing of the Gillard government while Antony Green gives him a fighting chance.
Like those guests at Christmas, the rise of community candidates will see an assortment of popular figures and more serious contenders hoping to replicate the success of Kerryn Phelps. Warringah will be a hot seat to watch as every man and his dog takes a shot at unseating Tony Abbott. The ring-ins with better prospects of pleasing voters will have a high-profile, a listening ear and a penchant for centrist policy.
Some are wondering whether Peta Credlin will finally put her hand up for a go at running so she can call her own shots. There is speculation she could take a crack at the north-west Victorian seat of Malee if the Nationals put up a dud candidate in the wake of the Broad scandal. But even if she stays on screen at Sky News as a commentator rather than leaping into our loungerooms as a candidate, Credlin will continue to be someone that politicians find too much credence in.
Indi will be an interesting seat to watch in the election with incumbent Cathy McGowan having announced her successor. Their Voices for Indi model, which has been emulated in Warringah, will be tested as the new community candidate runs. If deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie parachutes into the seat it could become a battleground.
2019 will be the year of having a go to get a go but it will also be slow going in terms of real reform. Hopefully a post-election Parliament will green light some meaningful reform to improve people's lives rather than always culture warring. Until then, I wouldn't hold your breath.
Eliza Berlage is a Canberra based journalist and podcast producer with a background in sociology. She currently works in the Parliament House press gallery as a researcher for The Conversation's chief political correspondent Michelle Grattan.
Main image: Prime Minister Scott Morrison (Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)