It was as if Australian politics had regressed four years overnight. No sooner had Labor released its new climate change plan than the Coalition was resuscitating Tony Abbott's 'carbon tax' line.
Environment Minister Greg Hunt called it a 'massive electricity tax', Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce said it would 'make people poorer' and even Prime Minster Turnbull repeated the mantra.
You could almost hear the collective groan in lounge rooms around the country. Not this again.
But the Coalition's attempt to revive the defining debate of the 2013 federal election won't work. As other commentators have noted, Labor's plan has been carefully crafted to avoid the carbon tax sledge. More importantly, external factors have changed to make a scare campaign less potent. Here are five reasons why.
1. It makes Turnbull look fake.
Turnbull was initially popular because people thought he was moderate. He could appeal to the political middle, not just the conservative base. But, as we've seen, his own party prevents him from adopting the more socially progressive policies the middle wants. The narrative of Malcolm the moderate has become Malcolm the compromised. Less turn, more bull.
This lack of authenticity is Turnbull's Achilles heel. When you came to power on a platform of not being Tony Abbott, sounding like Tony Abbott is a bit of a problem. Every Abbott-era slogan that leaves Turnbull's lips reinforces the view that he's just not being genuine.
And nowhere is that more obvious than over an emissions trading scheme, which Turnbull actually crossed the floor of parliament to support in 2010.
"Remember Barnaby Joyce's $100 lamb roasts? He claimed Gillard's 'big new tax on everything' would jack up the cost of a Sunday roast to triple figures. It didn't."
2. Business isn't so opposed.
Tony Abbott's anti-carbon tax campaign was fuelled by the united opposition of powerful business lobby groups. The Business Council of Australia, Australian Industry Group, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Minerals Council issued joint statements condemning Labor's carbon price.
This time round the response has been less united. In fact, the Business Council of Australia is broadly supportive — Chief Executive Jennifer Westacott described Labor's climate plan as a 'platform for bipartisanship'.
What business wants now is certainty to attract investment, not more political tug-of-war. That leaves the Coalition with far less ammunition than before.
3. The sky didn't fall in.
Remember Barnaby Joyce's $100 lamb roasts? He claimed the Gillard government's 'big new tax on everything' would jack up the cost of a Sunday roast to triple figures. It never came to pass, of course, and neither did a whole host of other hysterical predictions.
By the time the Coalition repealed the carbon price, Treasury estimated its average impact on households at $550 in 2014–15. That's substantial, but not exactly economic Armageddon.
In the end, the carbon tax pushed up electricity and gas prices by about ten per cent. The rest of the increase was network costs — essentially the 'poles and wires'
Real-world data like this should reduce speculation about the effect of Labor's plan on cost of living. Concern will be capped at a more realistic level.
On top of that, the scheme actually worked to reduce pollution. Since it's been scrapped, Australia's carbon pollution has been rising rapidly. The Coalition doesn't have a good answer to this rebuttal.
4. Concern about climate change is up.
The Lowy Institute Poll has tracked Australians' opinions on climate change since 2006. The question most relevant to pricing carbon pollution is whether we should take steps on global warming now 'even if this involves significant costs'. Support for this view bottomed out in 2012 and 2013 during Tony Abbott's carbon tax scare campaign. But it's rebounded, and is at its highest since 2009.
"Rather than getting bogged down in whether an emissions trading scheme is or isn't a tax, or just how much extra it will add to the cost of toasting crumpets, Labor needs to focus on why it's introducing this climate change plan."
Two other recent events mean concern about climate change will probably rise this year too. First, the successful Paris Agreement counters the old, spurious argument that Australia's carbon price was 'going it alone'. It also relegates climate denialism to the political fringes.
And second, the massive bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef is the most potent visual symbol of climate change Australians have ever seen. The reef is a beloved natural wonder and watching parts of it die will affect people at a deep level.
It shifts the debate from economic self-interest to stewardship and responsibility, which will play well for Labor's argument.
5. The energy transition message has gotten through.
Opinion polls from the last few years have shown a rise in support for clean energy — and greater acceptance that renewables can provide most of our power.
In an Essential Media poll from May 2015, respondents even thought renewable energy was better than fossil fuels for electricity costs, the economy and jobs. The Climate Institute's 2015 survey found the majority of Australians now believe closing coal power stations is inevitable and the government needs a plan to do it.
There are big economic forces at play too. The price of thermal coal, which is burned in power stations, has crashed. Some of the world's largest coal companies have gone bankrupt. And the mining boom has ended. Australians have started to realise that perhaps our future prosperity doesn't lie in just digging up our geological resources. The public is much more ready for energy transition than they were four years ago.
This isn't to say Labor can't stuff this up. Bill Shorten made an early blunder when he said 'There will be no carbon tax under Labor', echoing Julia Gillard's election promise and giving the Liberals great material for a political attack ad. It's a reminder of why Labor lost the last debate — poor communication, and accepting the opposing side's frame.
Rather than getting bogged down in whether an emissions trading scheme is or isn't a tax, or just how much extra it will add to the cost of toasting crumpets, Labor needs to focus on why it's introducing this climate change plan. Cutting pollution, boosting clean energy and saving the Reef — that's the territory that will work for them. The bigger picture.
We're in for a cringe-inducing couple of months, but this new carbon tax scare campaign will soon peter out. Australia has moved on.
Greg Foyster is an environment journalist, an alumni of Centre for Sustainability Leadership, and the author of the book Changing Gears.
Cartoon by Greg Foyster