The clamour for Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard to become prime minister has been fuelled by the recent Newspoll that shows she is very close to Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister. For many it has become almost a fait accompli. But when and how might it happen?
Gillard has all it takes to be an excellent prime minister. But she is right to deflect attention from calls for her elevation, whether it is immediate or during a second Labor term. If leader of the opposition is the worst job in politics then, for an ambitious person, deputy prime minister can also be extremely frustrating.
The historical record is on the side of leaders of the opposition. In recent times Rudd, Howard, Hawke, Fraser and Whitlam have come to the job from being opposition leader. The natural order of things is for the opposition to beat the government at an election and for its leader to then become prime minister.
There have been few if any smooth transitions from deputy to prime minister. One reason is that deputies are often not ambitious and are deputy for that reason. Another is that it is just too difficult to topple a prime minister.
Paul Keating fought Bob Hawke to the death from his position as treasurer then backbencher. Eventually he narrowly deposed Hawke in his second challenge. Keating was exhausted when he finally got his dream job.
Twenty years earlier John Gorton was toppled by his deputy, William McMahon, in March 1971. This happened after a poorer than expected performance in winning the 1969 federal election and subsequent destabilisation by Fraser. The vote was tied in the party room and Gorton effectively stood down.
This is the type of scenario implied by advocates of Gillard for PM. But it is a rare case. Furthermore, McMahon was defeated at the next election. He had inherited a poisoned chalice against a newly confident opposition leader, Whitlam. Is that really the scenario that Gillard supporters want? Can it be confidently assumed that she would revive a faltering Labor government by taking over mid-term against a rampant opposition?
If Labor wins the next election, Rudd will be entrenched for another term. If the Coalition wins by any margin Rudd will probably step down and Gillard is likely to become opposition leader.
If Labor was to win very narrowly, then the Gorton scenario might come into play. But