The end game in the Government's plan to hold a referendum to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution and to remove racially discriminatory provisions has now begun with the submission last Thursday of the unanimous report by the 22-member expert panel.
It has recommended five specific changes (removing two sections and adding three) to the body of the Constitution. The Parliament must now decide on the precise questions to go to a referendum.
The reception of the report has shown what a tough game it will be, not just because of the historic difficulty in making constitutional change in Australia by the referendum process, but because of the broader context of race and racism in which the campaign is already being conducted.
The moment encapsulates the long-held aspirations of both the Indigenous Rights and Reconciliation movements. The Prime Minister has said this is a one in 50-year opportunity.
It is 45 years since the successful 1967 Indigenous referendum to which this one inevitably is being linked. It is 47 years since the 1965 NSW Freedom Ride campaigns. It is 40 years since the establishment of the Aboriginal Tent Embassy in Canberra. The main public face of the report, the co-chair Patrick Dodson, was made chair of the Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation way back in 1991.
These efforts illustrate the various streams in Indigenous campaigning, of which constitutional reform has been just one. While not a final step, this referendum might be a significant further step in this long journey. It follows the 2008 parliamentary apology to the Stolen Generations and provides an opportunity for this Labor era to be remembered whenever the Indigenous story is told.
Ominously though, it has also been 35 years since the last successful referendum in 1977. Only eight out of 44 attempts have been successful. Passing a referendum is exceptionally difficult and there is no fool-proof recipe for success. No one should doubt this.
The advocates of this referendum have done a lot right in the usual ways. They have attempted to build a broad coalition behind the proposal right from the start. The large size of the committee illustrates the attempt to bring everyone together inside the tent, including different opinion leaders within the Indigenous community (from Noel Pearson to Dodson) and the range of political opinion from Labor to the Coalition, represented by Aboriginal Liberal MP Ken Wyatt.
This consultative, consensual approach has been successful so far, though there are already critics, including Indigenous ones.
But there are problems. One is getting the timing right. Can an unpopular government manage to conduct a successful referendum as an election draws near or even at the time of the next election?
This problem may be overcome by top-level, comprehensive bipartisanship and multi-partisanship. Tentative indications are that federal bipartisanship may hold. To be successful this must be extended to comprehensive state government and opposition support, and the Greens must campaign enthusiastically too.
The second problem is deciding the scope of the referendum. Critics are already picking holes in the extent of the recommendations. Some are suggesting that for success the KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid) principle must be adopted.
But the winning principle is not merely simplicity but not trying to do too much. Changes have to be made carefully and compromise must prevail even if this means some worthwhile suggestions are ditched. Voters are not fools but they are apathetic and can be led because they are ignorant of the detail. Public education campaigns find it hard to crack this combination of detachment and ignorance. Negative campaigns are too easy to run.
One thing is certain; it is too late to pull back. No government or opposition should trifle with the Indigenous community and/or with the broad community on such an issue.
Defeat may be worse than no referendum at all because of the hopes dashed. But surely we have to have a go. It is a test for all those in Australian public life to make sure not only that it happens but that the outcome is successful. It is also a test for all of us with a voice to play our part. Most successful referendums pass resoundingly. Let's hope this one does too.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University and a columnist with The Canberra Times.