The argument for an Australian head of state is once again building public momentum. The Australian Republican Movement (ARM) has had a most successful year under its new chairman Peter FitzSimons and January brought not only unprecedented approval from political leaders but also the active support of 2016 Australian of the Year, David Morrison.
The joint statement by the premiers and chief ministers that Australia should have an Australian head of state may turn out to be an important stepping stone. Notably the seven signatories included three Coalition leaders.
Only Colin Barnett in Western Australia, while reaffirming that he is a republican, declined to sign the statement, which read simply that the signatories 'believe that Australia should have an Australian as our head of state'.
Such high-level political support is a necessary but not sufficient condition for reform, as the 1999 referendum showed in some states where both the government and opposition supported change but the popular vote was lost. But such an Australia-wide united republican declaration, supported by the prime minister, the opposition and the Greens at the Commonwealth level, is unprecedented.
However Barnett's reasons for declining to sign may resonate with Malcolm Turnbull. Barnett told FitzSimons that he 'did not think that the time is right ... to prosecute the argument for constitutional change', though he believed Australia would become a republic in his lifetime (he's 65).
Unlike the ARM he may agree with Turnbull that for strategic reasons reform should wait until the passing of Queen Elizabeth as Australian head of state. Turnbull has long held this strategic view because he sees no benefit in a second heroic failure caused by moving too soon; though the ARM is merely proposing a plebiscite in 2020.
Turnbull faces a major test of his leadership this year as we enter a potentially groundbreaking reform era for causes that he has long supported, such as same sex marriage, the republic and Indigenous constitutional recognition.
He will need a judicious mix of caution and boldness in order to successfully ride these reform waves. In supporting reform he will face considerable conservative opposition. Success will breed success and his authority across the country and within his own party will rest on his ability to win elections.
Turnbull's strategic judgement is understandable at one level and his caution will be shared by some others who were bruised by the 1999 defeat. However, political leaders who wait for overwhelming popular support before offering leadership to a political movement are also self-serving because top-down support is always necessary for success. Leadership sometimes means getting out in front.
The ARM too must continue to be energetic and ambitious. It must meet Turnbull's challenge to become a larger and more popular movement. Republican petitions in support of the political leaders must be repeated again and again, enlisting ever larger support.
ARM should also encourage and welcome but not rely too heavily on support from high-profile community leaders. Morrison's enthusiastic naming of the republic among his three core beliefs as Australian of the Year came at just the right time.
Furthermore, as a former Chief of Army he may be able to more effectively explain the republican position within Australian military circles. So far the majority of the military, with important exceptions such as former ARM head Mike Keating, have been unenthusiastic about transferring its allegiance to an Australian as head of state.
But that will not be enough either. Many recent Australians of the Year have supported the republican cause and some, like mental health leader Patrick McGorry and businessman Simon McKeon, have been active advocates.
The necessary momentum will come from a potent combination of parliamentary and community leadership and demonstrated popular support.
The latter is the most important, and building such support, measured ultimately in petitions and public opinion polls, is the challenge that several recent republican prime ministers have issued to the republican movement. The ARM must keep knocking loudly on their door.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University and a former chair of the Australian Republican Movement.