Speculation is in the air again that Julia Gillard's leadership is under immediate threat. It has been fuelled, if the roaring blaze needs any more fuel, by the Malaysian asylum seeker processing controversy, yet another disastrous opinion poll (Nielsen in The Age and the SMH), a revitalised Kevin Rudd, and perhaps by the satirical ABC TV program At Home with Julia.
Now I didn't predict Kevin Rudd's demise last 24 June but I did say the next morning in the Canberra Times (and later in Eureka Street) that Rudd might still have won the next election and that the consequences of the change were unpredictable. That has turned out to be the case in spades.
In recent times I have argued consistently, including in Eureka Street, that Labor now should stick with Gillard for better or worse and hope that the next election is not for another two years. Labor will most likely lose that election, but my view has been that no other potential Labor leader will do better. The failure of multiple changes in NSW to improve Labor's situation is one piece of supporting evidence.
Even if Gillard was to be replaced it should only be after being given a decent shot at the job; therefore, no earlier than mid-2012.
Gillard's position now can most likely not be revived. But where there is life there is hope and she seems determined to stay the course. Her spirited performance in parliament last week in support of the carbon tax legislation shows that.
I don't see At Home with Julia as causing her more damage, and it may even evoke sympathy. It is certainly disrespectful of the office of PM but, while there has been no previous direct equivalent, other prime ministers, including John Howard, have copped plenty of disrespect too. 'Look-alikes are the craze both here and in the USA.
However never before has an Australian leader's spouse been lampooned like Tim Mathieson. He has to endure a lot to sexism, but will rise above his portrayal as a goofy house husband-type figure.
The Nielsen Poll is especially stark evidence of the weakness of Gillard's position. What was new about the poll was that it sharpened the choice for anyone considering a leadership switch. Rudd really is the only alternative offering much hope of a Labor revival. The others like Stephen Smith, Simon Crean, Bill Shorten and Greg Combet do not have the necessary popular appeal.
Rudd, remarkably given the devastating public criticism of his personal characteristics only 18 months ago, does have more public appeal than Gillard. In fact, the poll suggests that led by him Labor might be favoured (by 52:48 after preferences) to defeat the Coalition if an election were to be held now. That has led to further speculation about a snap election if Rudd became leader once again.
Labor MPs facing annihilation would only be human if tempted by such a promising scenario. So anything could happen, but Labor would be making another mistake if it happened right now.
There are uncertainties galore for Labor in the Rudd-led revival option. They are about much more than eating humble pie by admitting a mistake, although there would have to be a lot of that.
Aren't Labor's problems of Rudd's making anyway and wouldn't that be the legitimate thrust of the Coalition's response? This applies to asylum seekers, the mining tax and the carbon tax. If Rudd takes over and quickly shows he is not the answer, isn't Labor in even bigger strife, if that is possible? Being a martyr can only take Rudd so far.
Can't the same things be said again about Rudd as have been said about Gillard; that is, that he doesn't have a mandate and has been installed undemocratically by cronies outside of an election? Admittedly there would be a new twist, but there has been an election since he was deposed.
Wouldn't this be a breach of faith with the Independents and the Green that support the minority government? They might go along for the ride anyway, but there would need to be some healing.
Rudd as PM would be a refurbished broom but not a new one. If he was to be re-installed then John Howard's Lazarus impersonation and Robert Menzies' return to office in 1949 would have been outdone by perhaps the most remarkable twist ever in Australian politics. Only insiders know whether it is a chance of happening. Only Australian voters know whether it might work.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University and a columnist with The Canberra Times.