Prime Minister Scott Morrison is a lot of things, but an expert in foreign policy is clearly not one of them. This month he has decided Australia will buck international norms and recognise West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel as well as set up a trade office there.
It's a step back from what he offered back in October when he said Australia would follow the US in moving the embassy from diplomatic hub Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, but with nobody beyond a handful of high profile conservatives in Australia in favour, was it all worth it?
A pervasive line from the conservative wing of Australia's commentating class suggests that to not move the embassy now would be 'kowtowing' to Malaysia and Indonesia. Never mind that both states have merely issued rebukes and questioned the wisdom — hardly the diplomatic pressure right wing columnists claim.
Writers, like the Herald Sun's Caroline Marcus this week, say that the recognition of West Jerusalem as capital is a triumph over bullying Muslim-majority countries within the region. This particular line highlights how extraordinarily unprepared the Australian right wing is for the rapid realignment which is increasingly pushing Australia into the region and away from the traditional Western powers.
It doesn't follow that Australia should prioritise a policy shift which pleases Israel at the cost of damaging far more important and immediate relations. Especially given that Israel is not even happy with the outcome.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry, currently directly under the control of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, issued a brief statement calling the announcements 'a step in the right direction'. According to the Times of Israel, senior officials had been telling local media the government had hoped for wider recognition than just West Jerusalem. Yuli Edelstein, Speaker in the Knesset, said the statement was 'difficult to understand' stressing that 'all of Jerusalem is our eternal capital, not just a part of it'.
And then there is Australia's own diplomatic corps. Australia had looked at moving the embassy earlier this year, prompted by the US's announcement in May. That was quietly shelved after Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade provided advice to then foreign minister Julie Bishop that it just wasn't worth the hassle. The move would have cost up to $200 million and stressed tenuous but vital relationships in the Muslim world, particularly Indonesia which had led the charge against the US's move.
"This in-between policy has left no party satisfied and, with the exception of the usual suspects in right wing press, has been widely and rightly derided as a double-down to save face."
While the US announcement saw a huge demonstration shut down Central Jakarta earlier this year, smaller ones have appeared at the Australian Embassy in recent weeks. Morrison himself faced a talking to with both Indonesian President Joko Widodo and his Malaysian counterpart Mahathir Mohamad during the East Asian Summit in Singapore last month. Both leaders see the Palestinian cause as central to their respective countries' foreign policies and to write that off as chest-beating for domestic voters is a folly.
President Widodo and his foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, were the first crucial voices in condemning the US move and are personally passionate for the cause. Likewise, Prime Minister Mahathir has spent decades spruiking support for Palestine on the global stage. It's clear that if Morrison knew this, he did not care.
Floating the embassy move during the closing days of the Wentworth by-election meant the policy would be forever marked as a cynical ploy to secure Jewish votes in the seat. This in-between policy has left no party satisfied and, with the exception of the usual suspects in right wing press, has been widely and rightly derided as a double-down to save face. This government is near certain to be turfed at the next election — a fact they're more aware of than any of us — and that seems to have triggered a frantic fumbling to rearrange the Titanic's deck chairs.
The hubris behind the announcement defines the dying days of the Morrison government. Israel is an issue increasingly irrelevant to Australia's major interests, while trade and strategic importance with Malaysia and Indonesia are consistently increasing and — in the case of Indonesia — has become one of our most important relationships. But Morrison ignores all reasonable advice, avoids his own party room and makes a captain's call motivated by his own ideology that is hardly mainstream. How can Australians be expected to trust their leadership when they're risking it all on cowboy foreign policy?
Erin Cook is a Jakarta-based journalist with a focus on South East Asia, and editor of the SEA news digest Dari Mulut ke Mulut.
Main image: Scott Morrison arrives to speak at the Australian Institute on 15 December 2018 in Sydney. Morrison announced that the Australian government will recognise West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. (Mick Tsikas-Pool/Getty Images)