Serendipity is defined as the gift of finding valuable things in unexpected places by sheer luck. It is a good description of Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie in Australian politics.
She is fortunate to be in the Senate and doubly fortunate to find herself in a position where she can influence the outcome of government legislation. We are fortunate that she has the personal character and history which makes her a welcome presence and that she possesses the values which she applies to the legislation which comes before her.
But there is a sting in the tail. The community is unfortunate that the outcome of crucial legislation, like Newstart, Medevac, cashless welfare cards and much more, is determined by serendipity or sheer luck. What if the deciding vote was held by someone else but Lambie, someone with different values? Should our system put so much power in the hands of one person?
Senator Lambie has had a roller-coaster ride as characterised by Fairfax journalist David Crowe in his portrait 'Lambie 3.0: Psych ward to Senator' (14-15September 2019). She was first elected in September 2013 with a start date of July 2014 as a member of Palmer United. She quickly became an Independent, was re-elected in 2016 and served until her eligibility for British citizenship meant Section 44 of the constitution forced her out of Parliament in November 2017. After 18 months she was re-elected in May 2019.
Her personal and family circumstances have been trying and her manner is unpolished. She calls on her past life experience in the Army and as a single mother with troubled children. She can be abrupt and sometimes even crude, but she is learning on the job. She is a distinctive presence among the many faceless senators representing the major parties. In the modern jargon she is authentic because she speaks her mind.
She is now one of six crossbench senators, with the others being the two One Nation senators from Queensland, led by Pauline Hanson, the two Centre Alliance senators from South Australia, Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff, and the conservative former Liberal from South Australia, Cory Bernardi. Notably all six come from three of the smaller states.
The dynamic varies among the six so others play a role too. The government needs four of these six votes to pass its legislation. One Nation and Bernardi tend to stick with the Morrison government, leaving Centre Alliance and Lambie to do the negotiations. Centre Alliance is a micro-political party, but while Lambie has a network she is much more like a lone independent.
"Some may see her as comparable, though a very different type of person, to her Tasmanian Independent predecessor, Brian Harradine."
Centre Alliance, as its name suggests, plays a negotiating middle-of-the-road role like the former Australian Democrats and the former Senator Nick Xenophon. They can also sometimes play the home state card to attract specific benefits for their own states. Lambie does too, but she is harder to categorise, always a strength because she can keep the government guessing and is harder to dismiss as just an Opposition Labor/Green figure in disguise.
In her first Senate term she supported the far-sighted Future of Financial Advice laws and helped save some of the remaining Clean Energy mechanisms from the rampaging Abbott government. In vain she tried to help children on Nauru but found herself in the minority.
In the current debates Lambie swings backwards and forwards on issues like random drug tests on welfare recipients (opposed without big concessions), cashless welfare cards (supports), Newstart (supports extending allowable hours of paid employment) and repealing the Medevac legislation (undeclared). This leaves Coalition government supporters grumbling, while Labor/Green supporters feel they are just getting crumbs from the table. In the wider community, opinion about her probably varies from irritant and upstart to voice of reason and compassion. Some may see her as comparable, though a very different type of person, to her Tasmanian Independent predecessor, Brian Harradine.
The role of the Senate crossbench is totally unpredictable. No one can predict just what it will throw up. That is the price we pay for a parliament not dominated by the four big parties: Liberal, Labor, Greens and Nationals.
While we may celebrate the presence and impact of someone like Lambie we should remember that a system which depends on serendipity potentially also has a big downside.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University.