Malcolm Turnbull continues to cop plenty of friendly fire. He has both a leadership and a Coalition problem. He is blamed for the ills of the Coalition government whether or not he can be reasonably held responsible for them.
The government is behind in the public opinion polls so he must be the problem. Same sex marriage passes without enough religious protections so he must be to blame. The Coalition loses a state election so he must be at fault.
Leadership is not easy. As Barnaby Joyce, standing beside the Prime Minister at the Southgate Inn in Tamworth last Saturday night after his by-election win, proclaimed: 'Running a country is a little harder than running sheep through a gate, I can tell you that.' Compared with running a country Turnbull must find running a party, much less a Coalition of parties, like herding cats.
After the same sex marriage legislation passed the Senate he was blamed by Nationals' MP for Mallee in Victoria, Andrew Broad, for not doing enough to protect the interests of conservatives on his own side.
According to Broad he showed a 'complete lack of leadership' by not consulting with conservatives enough and for allowing a bill drafted by Senator Dean Smith to go ahead rather than a compromise bill which incorporated the views of 'No' campaigners. Yet Turnbull was reflecting the clear majority of parliamentary and community opinion in favour of same sex marriage.
After the re-election of the Queensland Labor government, in an election where One Nation polled 14 per cent to damage the chances of the Liberal National Party, he was criticised by the Nationals' New South Wales Deputy Premier, John Barilaro, for claiming that the election was fought on state issues.
Speaking to radio shock jock Alan Jones, Barilaro called on Turnbull to resign before Christmas because he was the problem. 'You've got a party in disarray, a Coalition government in disarray and a community not unified, and that is all at the feet of the Prime Minister of Australia.' Yet Turnbull said little more than the standard mantra by federal leaders that they should not be blamed for state losses.
"Turnbull's problems are not his alone and should be seen in the light of a much bigger context in which leaders are damned if they are decisive and equally damned if they are cautious."
Queensland Nationals undermined Turnbull's opposition to a banking royal commission forcing him to backflip. George Christianson, MP for Dawson, toyed publicly with the idea of quitting the government benches altogether before texting Turnbull to say that he was staying now that there was to be a royal commission. Yet Turnbull's stand had been supported by former prime minister John Howard who had described a bank royal commission as 'rank socialism'.
While the Nationals are causing most of Turnbull's current leadership problems, over the course of his prime ministership members of his own Liberal Party have led the way. His arch-rival Tony Abbott has been supported by a clutch of conservatives, including Kevin Andrews, Senator Eric Abetz and, until forming the Australian Conservatives, Senator Cory Bernardi. The Nationals can be disruptive but only the Liberals can directly depose Turnbull because the critical decision on his leadership will be taken in his own party room, not in a joint Coalition meeting.
Most of the friendly fire criticism of Turnbull is unfair. His weaknesses and failures may contribute to the defeat of his government at the next election. But many of them have been caused by the deep-seated divisions between conservatives and moderates like himself within his party and his government. The Coalition agreement between the Nationals and the Liberals signed after the September 2015 leadership contest and confirmed again after the July 2016 election enshrined these divisions.
Some are also an inevitable consequence of deep divides within Australian society. They make exercising any leadership devilishly difficult. Most of the state premiers are also struggling. Annastacia Palaszczuk only scraped back in Queensland against an uninspiring opposition. Barilaro's own NSW government led by Gladys Berejiklian has executed extraordinary backflips of its own over issues such as banning greyhound racing and amalgamating local councils. Jay Weatherell in SA is suffering the politics of energy supply. Daniel Andrews in Victoria has presided over bitterly divisive assisted dying legislation.
The divisions are political, social, cultural and religious. They include urban-rural, religious-secular and traditional-modern discord which make compromise difficult and social consensus rare. Turnbull's problems are not his alone and should be seen in the light of a much bigger context in which leaders are damned if they are decisive and equally damned if they are cautious.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University and chairs Concerned Catholics Canberra-Goulburn.