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AUSTRALIA

Turnbull's uncertain road to glory

  • 24 March 2016

 

Media reaction to Malcolm Turnbull's decision to recall Parliament on 18 April was remarkably glowing. The move was acclaimed as a masterstroke and his decisiveness applauded. However the story about the path Turnbull has laid out and the roadblocks that still remain is actually more complex.

His plan may turn out to be too clever by half.

Turnbull faced two roadblocks. One was a recalcitrant Senate while the other combined a conservative Liberal party and a disgruntled Coalition partner.

Both were overhangs from the Abbott era. The Senate roadblock by the micro-parties was famously linked to the failed 2014 Budget, the most important element in the demise of the Abbott government. But, despite Turnbull's decision to undertake Senate reform, this roadblock had already diminished in public importance since he became Prime Minister last September.

The more important road block was internal. He had cornered himself when he negotiated the leadership and then been further blocked by conservative party colleagues, continuously led from the backbench by Tony Abbott.

It was his internal party and Coalition compromises on social policy plus indecision over taxation reforms which weakened his public profile. His falling public support was not related to failure to pass legislation through the Senate.

Turnbull's strategy is to deal with both of his roadblocks together by linking industrial relations reform for the building and construction industry with Senate reform. His hope is that both his party and his Coalition partner will unite behind him on an iconic conservative parties' issue, thus resolving both his internal and external problems in one swoop.

That assumption may misread the nature of modern Liberal factional politics. While his internal conservative party opponents are interested in economic and industrial policy that may no longer be their major interest. They have become cultural warriors rather than old-style economic advocates.

 

"If the legislation does pass the Senate he could still use another trigger to call a double dissolution, but that would look like a tricky breach of faith."

 

The second aspect of getting on top of things for Turnbull is to ultimately win the election convincingly, thus earning a mandate within his own party and with the electorate. However, neither successfully treading the path to a 2 July election nor winning that election convincingly is certain.

He has recalled the parliament for three weeks discussion and debate of his industrial relations legislation. In doing so he has challenged the cross-bench to pass this legislation so as to avoid a