Donald Trump's presidential victory has been greeted by most of the mainstream media with shock and apprehension, which is to be expected given that they were barracking for his opponent. It is worth examining just why the antipathy to Trump has been so great among those used to pulling the levers of power.
The usual reason given is that he is, so it is claimed, a 'sociopathic con artist' and narcissist. 'As opposed to what?' one might ask. As the Clintons have demonstrated with their appalling charitable foundation, there is some pretty steep competition in that area.
Another, less noticed, reason why Trump creates such anxieties, especially in the political elites, is that he is, first and foremost, a businessman.
In modern times, has there ever been a major political leader of a democracy, let alone president of the United States, who spent their whole adult life in business before moving to the top of the political tree? When we look at him from this perspective his behaviour becomes entirely predictable.
The first step for a business person is to make the sale, usually by over-promising and tapping into the emotional triggers of the customer. That is exactly what Trump did. Over and over, he assured everyone that electing him would be 'fantastic'; he would deliver; customer-value is in the bag. It was a pitch he had made countless times in his business career, albeit mainly with hotels rather than to electorates.
He even continued the rhetoric in his acceptance speech, which looked more like an annual meeting for a business that has had a year of stellar profits than a political event. Top performing staff were singled out and the supporters were praised as if they were staff members who had put in a good year. Even his comment about the 'potential' of Americans sounded like a speech to boost employee morale.
The next step for a business person, once the sale is made, is for a hard financial logic to be applied. Trump's hype will be, at the very least, toned down, if not unwound. Watch for him to shift. Once the customer has coughed up, business people typically become extremely pragmatic. That will be how Trump behaves.
It is often said that the 'business of America is business', implying that having a businessman at the helm is culturally appropriate. But the anxiety indicates that many in the power elite think otherwise.
"He has not ever been in the armaments industry and judging from his comments about Russia, he seems to appreciate that endless wars make for very bad business — they are a waste of not just blood, but also treasure."
We get a hint of why by looking at what kind of businessman Trump has been. The three most powerful business lobbies in Washington are the finance sector, the armaments industry and the oil and gas industries. For finance and armaments, the 'client' is government. Finance needs to be bailed out when things go wrong and to have rules that allow them to pillage the system. The armaments industry needs government to buy its weapons. Likewise, the oil and gas industry has for decades been instrumental in shaping American foreign policy. The State Department and the CIA have acted in tandem with the big energy corporations.
Trump does not come from any of those industries; indeed he is likely to be quite hostile to at least one of them. Having almost been bankrupted by banks, he is likely to have the aversion that many business people feel towards bankers. That is perhaps why he has made the re-introduction of the Glass-Steagall, which prohibits commercial banks from engaging in the investment business, part of the Republican Party's platform.
He has not ever been in the armaments industry and judging from his comments about Russia, he seems to have an appreciation that endless wars make for very bad business — they are a waste of not just blood, but also treasure.
What Trump has done is build things. Thus, it was no surprise that he talked mainly of building infrastructure in his acceptance speech. This is where he is comfortable and it is likely that significant resources will go into improving this area.
Many have expressed concerns, reasonably enough, about his politically incorrect comments. To some extent that was part of his pitch to the disenfranchised, but it is also common for business people to nurture low-level prejudices, much as people do from other walks of life. Yet they tend to be superficial, ill thought out opinions, not politically organised campaigns. Most of the mental energy of business people is taken up with serving customers and running their businesses. That is very different from what happens in politics, where acting on prejudices and dislikes routinely becomes the central focus.
Where Trump will be caught out is in the areas where politics is very different from business. He will be too ready to think society is just a business, when it is not. Also, his history of risk taking in business does not augur well for budget restraint. But it is wrong to think his behaviour is unpredictable, it is just not something we have previously seen in US politics.
David James is the managing editor of businessadvantagepng.com