During the federal election coverage on the ABC, there was a moment I jumped up, held my breath and clasped my hand over my mouth. It wasn’t because of the cascade of seats falling to Labor but because figures indicated that Greens leader Adam Bandt was in danger of losing his seat of Melbourne, where I live.
No one expected this, including Labor, because their signs at polling booths were sparse and the only material I received from the party was a text the day before the election telling me to vote for their candidate Sarah Witty. Even ABC’s Antony Green predicted Bandt would hold his seat. But on this rare occasion, Green was wrong. Later in the week, Bandt conceded the seat of Melbourne, which he had held for 15 years. To say the Greens were in shock is an understatement.
On any measure, the Greens performed dismally. They lost three of their four lower house seats, and their primary vote fell. Before the election, Bandt had bragged the party would retain their four lower house seats and pick up five, including Wills in Melbourne and Richmond in NSW. They have maintained their Senate seats, although even the Greens' Senate vote has gone backwards. The Greens still have the balance of power. However, Labor is also in a position to do deals with the Coalition and independents to get legislation passed.
The Greens' federal election result continues a series of bad performances in 2024 and earlier this year. They lost one of their two seats in the Queensland State election and in the ACT election they ended up with three seats in the Legislative Assembly after previously holding six. They lost their stranglehold in the Yarra Council elections, which forms part of the federal seat of Melbourne. In this year’s Prahran by-election, the Greens failed to hold onto the seat it had held for more than ten years. A significant portion of Prahran is in the seat of Melbourne.
Bandt stated in his concession speech that the collapse in the Liberal vote at the federal election accounted for the party losing seats because Liberal preferences, in the main, went to Labor. However, Bandt first won Melbourne from Labor on Liberal preferences in 2011, and in this election, in his former seat of Melbourne, Labor directed preferences to him in their how-to-vote-card. Voters also know they can direct preferences anyway they want.
In Bandt’s media release, he continued to explain why the Greens lost Melbourne. Voters wanted to get rid of Peter Dutton and the best way they thought to do this was to vote Labor. He said the electoral boundary changes affected his chances (more on that later) and that he didn’t get enough time to get to know the people of Prahran and South Yarra, the new suburbs joining his former seat. But voters had got to know him: Bandt spent a lot of time in Prahran and South Yarra for the Prahran by-election campaign, was photographed with candidate Angelica Di Camillo and appeared in Instagram videos with her.
Nowhere in Bandt’s concession speech was there an element of self-reflection or acknowledgment that the Greens need to examine their direction and policies, and even how they treat branch members. Over the past five years, women in particular, have left the Greens after being harassed and accused of transphobia because they questioned whether trans rights may clash with women’s sex-based rights.
'The Teals have largely filled the space for climate change and the environment messages and policies, despite the Greens' campaign to stop coal and gas.'
Despite Bandt’s explanation for the Greens losses, the party needs a period of self-reflection because the Greens’ brand is seriously broken. The wider community is confused about what they stand for and, even more damning, many have formed assessments that the Greens are obstructive and divisive. The party continually blocked Labor’s housing policy but then helped to pass it the end of last year without any concessions. Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather lost his seat of Griffith in Brisbane. He also drew wide criticism for defending the toxic CFMEU at a rally in Brisbane.
The Greens central policy of ‘Free Palestine’ which saw candidates wear keffiyehs and join pro-Palestine marches also contributed to division. I’d argue that Australians have empathy for the people of Gaza, the hostages held by Hamas and for anyone caught up in wars such as the India-Pakistan conflict. Many Australians whether Catholic or not would applaud Pope Leo’s XIV’s recent anti-war message which also caused for ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza and the release of the Israeli hostages. I do, and I’m Jewish.
However, the Greens caused division and offense to many Australians because unless people took an ideologically-driven, hardline stance on the complicated Gaza conflict and agreed with all their actions to ‘free Palestine’, they would be accused of being ‘complicit in genocide’. Bandt, Greens MPs such Mehreen Faruqi and supporters, including social media influencers, accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of being ‘complicit in genocide’.
This assessment of the Greens is reflected in copious social media comments by political wonks. Several former Greens voters told ABC’s Australia Votes they were unhappy with the party’s direction because they had moved away from their core values of the environment and were sowing seeds of division. One respondent from Melbourne’s northeast wrote: ‘I am sick of division, hatred and policies that aren’t realistic and/or are idealistic and result in nothing ... I want pragmatic policies that are fair.’
This election, the Greens tried to win over voters with the unrealistic 50-cent public transport fares, although this was quietly dropped during the campaign. They wanted to include dental services in Medicare and spruiked for free university education. The latter was never going to happen, but the Greens could have put pressure on Labor to reverse the differential HELP-HECS payments introduced under the Coalition Government’s Jobs Ready Skills Package. This policy, continued by Labor, has seen some subjects such as history subjects cost more than $2000 and others such as languages $555.
The Greens also went into the election campaigning on identity politics. In Cooper, Victoria, the Greens candidate, a trans woman, and Adam Bandt told voters, ‘We could make history this election by having the first trans woman elected to parliament’. This line also led advertising material. At a time when people are worried about paying the rent and covering the rising cost of groceries, identity politics doesn’t cut it. At the time of writing, there was a 3.68 per cent first preference swing away from the Greens candidate Tara Burnett and a 1.86 first preference swing to Labor’s Ged Kearney.
The Greens' communication has had the effect of drowning out their message about the environment and further cemented the assessment that the party has moved away from their environmental and conservationist roots. It could also be argued that the Teals have largely filled the space for climate change and the environment messages and policies, despite the Greens' campaign to stop coal and gas.
The Greens had some success in securing the younger vote, but it wasn’t enough. Bandt’s former seat of Melbourne has a younger median age than the rest of the country but in the long run, that didn't secure him the seat. A glance at Bandt’s TikTok account shows him in Brisbane and Melbourne (at Revolver nightclub in Prahran) acting the ‘cool’ DJ and dancing. Other TikToks show him with Abbie Chatfield, the reality TV personality, podcaster and influencer, spruiking for the party. The problem for the Greens is that this group of voters grows older and may turn away from the party, as some did in this federal election.
Could the Greens go the way of the Democrats and disappear? It is remarkable that in Bandt’s former seat of Melbourne, almost all inner-north booths recorded first preference swings away from him and Labor’s Sarah Witty logged increases. This is the Greens' heartland. These booths have a telling message for the party.
Dr Erica Cervini is a freelance journalist and sessional academic.