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Keywords: Forecasting

  • AUSTRALIA

    Black swans and the art of expecting the unexpected

    • Max Jeganathan
    • 24 January 2024
    2 Comments

    Even the best forecasting gets it wrong, and every year has its own 'Black Swan' events, characterised by their unpredictability and impact. They remind us that the future is unpredictable, perpetually lurching between prediction and confusion.

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  • ECONOMICS

    The economy is never as good as it looks and never as bad as it seems

    • David James
    • 04 May 2021
    2 Comments

    But although the Coalition will never admit it, it looks suspiciously like there has been some bipartisan institutional learning about how to manage financial crises. If you want to stimulate an economy in times of crisis put the money directly into the economy, either into people’s pockets or to businesses who then pass it on to workers.

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  • INTERNATIONAL

    Profitless prognostications

    • Andrew Hamilton
    • 12 November 2020
    8 Comments

    One of the minor annoyances of the United States election was how unreliable the polls turned out to be, particularly in some key swing states. Unsurprising, but still annoying for those hoping for a massive repudiation of the Trump presidency. In the large scheme of affairs the failure of the polls to predict is insignificant, but it does raise interesting questions about its implications for public life in the United States and in Australia.

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  • ARTS AND CULTURE

    Reimagining standards of masculinity

    • Dejan Jotanovic
    • 23 June 2020
    21 Comments

    Public mask wearing — including ‘a piece of cloth, a scarf, bandana, t-shirt, or paper towel’ — was hot on the global public health agenda. One major demographic, however, had trouble fashioning this expert advice: men. 

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  • AUSTRALIA

    The cult of certainty caught by cricket chaos

    • Andrew Hamilton
    • 04 September 2019
    3 Comments

    In a combative world where even sport is as joyless as was trench warfare in another age, the quirky ending of the Headingly cricket Test was an unexpected delight. The events prompt wider reflection on the broader quest for certainty in human affairs, and the consequent impatience with human judgment.

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  • ECONOMICS

    Devils in budget detail

    • Gabriela D'Souza
    • 17 May 2018
    2 Comments

    There were the stories that didn't get much of a mention in the mainstream press but will net large gains for young people and new entrants to the labour market. Under the budget measure, inactive super accounts with balances of less than $6000 will have a three per cent cap on fees charged. But is this policy quite what it seems?

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  • ECONOMICS

    Beyond Brexit doomsday myths

    • David James
    • 28 June 2016
    15 Comments

    Had Greece decided to exit the EU last year the consequences would have been far greater than Brexit, because Greece uses the euro, whereas Britain has the pound. British interest rates are not set in Brussels, they are set by the Bank of England. And it has an independent fiscal and budgetary system, to the extent that it is possible. The British government has been imposing 'austerity' measures because it subscribes to neoliberal orthodoxy, not because it is being told to do so by Brussels or Germany.

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  • ECONOMICS

    Consequences loom for global debt binge

    • David James
    • 19 January 2016
    11 Comments

    Low interest rates tend to change the understanding of risk; having high debt seems to be less of a problem because the cost of servicing it is lower. This cavalier attitude has been especially evident in Australian households, which have racked up more debt relative to the size of the economy than any other country in the world. The massive appetite for debt has been replicated across the globe. The world may have survived the era of casino money - just - but it is now facing another crisis.

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  • AUSTRALIA

    Contours and prospects for Indigenous recognition in the Australian constitution

    • Frank Brennan
    • 16 October 2015
    2 Comments

    I acknowledge those Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders who insist that they have never ceded their sovereignty to the rest of us. I join with those Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders who hope for better days when they are recognised in the Australian Constitution. As an advocate for modest constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians, I respect those Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders who question the utility of such recognition. But I do take heart from President Obama's line in his Charleston eulogy for the late Reverend Clementa C. Pinckney: 'Justice grows out of recognition'.

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  • AUSTRALIA

    The opportunity cost of Rudd-love

    • Michael Mullins
    • 14 December 2009
    5 Comments

    If Hawke and Keating had failed to act on economic reform, the opportunity cost would have been devastating unemployment during the GFC. It is not difficult to imagine the opportunity cost of the priority Rudd is giving to his own popularity over reforms that are now urgently needed.

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  • AUSTRALIA

    Consumer confidence can't be bought

    • Andrew Hamilton
    • 16 June 2008
    2 Comments

    Rising petrol prices and interest rates mean Australians' confidence in the economy has declined to the lowest level for 16 years. There is a need for a deeper source of confidence beyond economic good times.

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